BY BOO CHANCO: ECONOMY IS TOP ISSUE BUGGING VOTERS

BY BOO CHANCO: ECONOMY IS TOP ISSUE BUGGING VOTERS

MANILA, FEBRUARY 15, 2010 (STAR) DEMAND AND SUPPLY By Boo Chanco - I just attended a detailed briefing of Pulse Asia. Looking at their numbers, it is turning out to be a two horse race with all the others there only to provide the festive acoustics.

And it seems Noynoy’s problems are deeper than I thought. In fact, it was apparent after the briefing that it was premature of me to have said that the new approach of the campaign linking corruption to poverty will help repair the campaign’s shortfalls. They will need more than that.

I will spare my readers the boring details of the numbers but it was clear from the latest Pulse Asia survey that corruption is only the second most important concern of voters and this even has a largely urban complexion. At the top of the typical voter’s mind are very basic stuff about jobs and other such concerns found at the bottom of Maslow’s hierarchy of human needs.

And guess what? Manny Villar is seen by voters as the man more likely able to satisfy these needs for them than Noynoy. Just as I have earlier explained here, all that brouhaha over C5 didn’t resonate with the masa specially outside of Metro Manila. I suspect that on the contrary, it painted Villar exactly as Villar wants himself to be pictured: an underdog of a former poor boy that, despite his current riches, the ruling class refuses to accept.

The campaign handlers of Noynoy must spend time chewing on the numbers of Pulse Asia if they want a dramatic shift in Noynoy’s quest for Malacañang. Better focused as the new campaign materials may be, they will still have to tweak the message some more to convince the voters that Noynoy has what it takes to make a palpable difference in their lives.

The Pulse Asia numbers suggest to me that linking corruption with poverty is still a concept that’s up in the clouds… the educated class may get it but the masa may merely shrug their shoulders and say what’s new? The current campaign still seems to be more negative (what Noynoy isn’t) and people are looking for more specific things that they can link with an improvement in their daily lives.

In this regard, the Villar campaign appears to be way ahead. Villar’s message that he can make things happen is on target for the masa and seems to be gaining traction… It may have taken some budget insertions for a road to happen but real people are now using it. It doesn’t help Noynoy that he is being compared with Lito Lapid who only had one bill passed by Congress.

Voters told Pulse Asia job creation is a major worry. And the Pulse Asia numbers showed the voters seem more confident Villar is better able to create those jobs. Perhaps it is because Villar has a more solid record in business and managing people than Noynoy. The Noynoy campaign must overcome this deficiency if they are to arrest their slide.

The best part of the survey results has to do with the irrelevance of celebrity endorsers. Candidates are apparently wasting their time and money trying to get celebrity endorsers. Kris Aquino, Willie Revillame and Manny Pacquiao were shown to not be that influential and even carry a negative effect when they endorse. Ate Glue and FVR are worth next to nothing or even worse than nothing. They have been rendered irrelevant in this contest.

Celebrities are more successful running for office themselves than endorsing someone else. The top finishers in the Senate race are two actors. And the do-nothing Lito Lapid is still within the winning circle. Sad, but no new names or faces have emerged in the top 12 of the Senate race… not even those associated with past senators or political figures with surnames like Roco, Ople, Pimentel, Mitra, Biazon, Guingona, etc. They are facing a tough uphill battle they are likely to lose. Even Kit Tatad, who served with distinction in the past, is struggling and is not likely to make it.

Over all, it is still the economy, stupid!

Sugar farmers

I received this e-mail from JOSE MARI M. MIRANDA, President of the Bogo-Medellin Planters Association, Inc. and from ATTY. IÑAKI P. LARRAZABAL JR., President of the Ormoc Sugarcane Planters Association, Inc. It is a fairly long e-mail so I will excerpt here just some portions.

Price ceilings and threats of importation are knee-jerk reaction by government to cover up its lack of long-term infrastructure support and development plan for the agricultural sector, particularly the sugar industry. Sugar prices, as well as prices of other commodities, are just reacting to the dynamics of world market forces.

The perceived shortage in domestic sugar supply can be attributed to a substantial increase in sugar withdrawals. The increase in domestic demand highlights the long-standing problem of sugar smuggling in the past years.

When world prices were low due to dumping by countries with agricultural subsidies, sugar was smuggled into the country and it displaced demand for domestic sugar. Thus, domestic sugar prices plummeted and farmers suffered losses while smugglers were having their heyday.

Now that world prices are high, it is no longer profitable to smuggle sugar into the country. The absence of smuggled sugar in the market has revealed the real domestic sugar consumption, thereby registering an increase in demand and giving the impression of tight supplies. The perceived tightness in supply is being used by profiteers to unreasonably increase retail prices. We suspect that the group which is making the loudest noise against the sugar industry are the same ones who directly benefited from cheaper smuggled sugar in the past years.

We are still in the middle of the milling season. We have sufficient domestic sugar supplies. Government should realize that importation will send the wrong signals both to the sugar farmers and the consumers.

Threats of importation when prices are favorable will discourage farmers from investing more to produce more. Production will not increase for the next cropping season. The tight supplies will exert upward pressure on prices, thereby perpetuating the problem which government wants to address.

Consumers, too, might be misled that importation will immediately result to cheaper prices. Even with the “tax expenditure subsidy,” the landed cost of imported sugar will most likely be higher than present domestic prices. That is, if government can secure sugar supplies amidst a world market where many countries are also bidding each other out to secure their sugar supplies.

Jonathan Kingsman, head of global sugar brokers and consultants Kingsman Group, stated this week at the Dubai Sugar Conference, “The import demand is still greater than the export availability, so you would expect prices to rise further as importers bid against each other for limited supplies.”

Czarnikow Group, one of the world’s largest and oldest sugar brokers and traders, went as far as to project that white sugar prices might reach $1,000 per mt (P2,325 per 50-kilo bag @ P46.5/$) from its present $750 per mt (P1,744 per 50-kilo bag @ P46.5/$).

As experts project the global deficit to last at least until the next two years, global prices will continue to remain high. Under this scenario, the best remedy will be for government to support the farmers so that they can produce more and, thus, assure our food security.

We in the sugar industry are saddened by government’s attitude towards our industry. The days of the so-called sugar barons are long gone. Per SRA data for crop year 2007-2008, there are about 60,000 farmers cultivating approximately 400,000 hectares of sugar farms nationwide. Of these, about 47,000 farmers or almost 80 percent are cultivating five hectares or less while 10 percent or about 6,300 farmers cultivate farms of between 5.1 to 10 hectares.

Despite lack of government financing and support, sugar farmers still brave the odds to continue sugar farming. Had we not persevered in producing sugar, we will be experiencing an acute shortage and higher prices now. The least that government can do is to support not only the sugar industry but the entire agricultural sector.

Chief News Editor: Sol Jose Vanzi

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