OPINION: THE POLITICS OF DISASTERS

OPINION: THE POLITICS OF DISASTERS

MANILA, OCTOBER 21, 2009 (MANILA TIMES) By Tony Lopez - Physical disasters, not political dynasties, will decide the elections of 2010 seven months away.

By physical disasters I mean the likes of Ondoy, Pepeng and Lupit. By political dynasties I mean the likes of Senator Noynoy Aquino, Senator Mar Roxas, former President Joseph and Senator Jinggoy Estrada, Senator Francis and Sonny Escudero, Defense Secretary Gibo Cojuangco Teodoro and his uncle, super tycoon Eduardo “Danding” Cojuangco Jr., and even Senator Manny Villar who is married to a Las Piñas political dynasty.

Noynoy is the son of two national heroes—slain senator Benigno Jr. and People Power President Cory Aquino, and the grandson of a senator, Benigno Sr. Mar Roxas is the son of a senator and grandson of a president. The tandem of Noynoy and Mar are frontrunners in the presidential and vice presidential races.

Personally, it’s unnerving to me that Noynoy who has very little to show for solid legislative achievements and visionary governance capability, appears to be running away with the presidency with 60 percent of apparent voters going to vote for him, according to a September 2009 Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey. Villar is a distant second with 18 percent, followed closely by Erap Estrada 18 percent and Escudero with 15 percent. Bringing up the rear are Gibo Teodoro with four percent and Bayani Fernando one percent.

I totaled the percentages of the six—60, 37, 18, 15, 4 and 1—and I got 135. Then I divided 60 by 135 to get the more realistic voter preference for Noynoy—44.4 percent. (Note: In Chinese numerology No. 4 stands for death; Noynoy’s popularity surged from out of nowhere to being No. 1 after Corazon Aquino’s death on August 1).

Using the same formula—dividing the candidate’s percentage share by 135, Villar gets 27.4 percent, Estrada 13.3 percent, Escudero 11.1 percent, Teodoro 3 percent, and BF 0.74 percent.

Thus, out of every 100 voters, per the SWS survey, Noynoy would have 44, Villar 27, Estrada 13, Escudero 11, Teodoro three, and BF less than one.

I say these ratios will change drastically following Ondoy and Pepeng. The massive floods caused unprecedented damage could exceed P100 billion. Economic Planning Secretary Augusto Santos places the cost of the damage at 1.4 percent of GDP—gross domestic product or the national output of goods and services which amounted to P7.43 trillion in 2008.

I liken the Great Flood of 2009 to the Great Flood of 1972 when Manila Bay and Lingayen Gulf met in Central Luzon. President Marcos had to declare martial law to cope with the emergency.

This year’s Great Flood devastated what analysts call the Lingayen-Lucena Corridor—the vote-rich regions (Ilocos, Central Luzon, Calabarzon) which together account for almost 30 percent of total votes cast in presidential elections. Add Metro Manila (which has 13 percent of the total population) and you capture 42 percent of total votes. All the five leading presidential contenders claim bailiwicks in the L-L corridor, making it a major political battleground.

In past elections, the presidency was decided in just six places—Pangasinan, Pampanga-Tarlac, Metro Manila, Southern Luzon, Iloilo and Cebu. The candidate who dominated in these areas eventually won the presidency and that was the case for Fidel Ramos in 1992, Joseph Estrada in 1998, and Gloria Arroyo in 2004.

The first four areas—Pangasinan, Pampanga-Tarlac, Metro Manila, and Southern Luzon are now in state of calamity. Without the disasters of September and October, they would normally go for Noynoy. With the disasters, I doubt that Noynoy has these places in the bag.

The super typhoons have proved that you need a competent, capable and experienced leadership to cope with their aftermath. Despite their competence, capability and experience, President Arroyo (who has had eight years at the presidency and an MA and doctorate in economics) and Gibo Teodoro (bar topnotcher and Harvard Law) did not meet people’s expectations of coping with a crisis.

Noynoy Aquino has never run an enterprise before—outside of selling Nike shoes, short pants and t-shirts in his younger days. Villar of course built a $1-billion enterprise from scratch before the Asian Financial Crisis. Estrada has had 30 years of public service to his credit, including a 30-month stint at the presidency (he didn’t do badly, outside of the allegations of womanizing and graft). Chiz Escudero? I still have to look closely at what he did in nine years of being a congressman and barely three years of being a senator.

And Gibo Teodoro? Well, Ondoy and Pepeng probably made him. Or rather unmade him.

Chief News Editor: Sol Jose Vanzi

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