RICARDO V. PUNO, JR: MY TAKE ON THAT SURVEY (GMA RATING)
MANILA, November 25, 2004 (STAR) MY VIEWPOINT By RICARDO V. PUNO, Jr.- While government communication "experts" attempt positive spins, or blame external and uncontrollable factors for GMA’s precipitous slide in popularity, as reported in the latest Pulse Asia survey, the fact is that the survey should worry the administration.
Per Murphy’s Law, if things can go bad, they will, at the worst possible time. For GMA, they have, at a particularly bad time.
Is this hyperbole? I don’t think so. And if it’s true, as some of those aforesaid experts have been saying, that the survey results reflect lack of public appreciation of GMA’s "doing what is right in the national interest," then it’s pretty clear that someone has fallen flat on his face in making sure people get the correct messages.
It’s not only the drop in popularity – or "public approval for presidential performance," as Pulse Asia puts it – it’s also the continuing downward trajectory of that slide. The question we have to ask ourselves is how much more of this persistent decline our political system will be able to take. This is particularly disturbing because, bad as things have been in the popular perception, we ain’t seen nuthin’ yet. Or, put more politely, the "pain" which GMA asks of her people hasn’t really been felt yet in all its potential excruciation or intensity.
Media headlines the last couple of days have screamed that GMA’s popularity sank to the lowest level ever, a net satisfaction rating of plus 7. That’s half the story. The other half is what Pulse Asia’s media release noted: >From June of this year, GMA’s approval rating dropped 14 percentage points, from 55 to 41. On the other hand, her disapproval rate increased by 12 percentage points, from 22 to 34, the highest since she took office.
The conventional wisdom is that if an approval rating drops below 50 percent, a sitting President will have a real problem getting consensus on the policies and directions of his administration. Arguably, though, GMA hasn’t done too badly since March 2001. In the 17 surveys taken by Pulse Asia from that date to October 2004, she scored 50 percent or better 10 times, and below that seven times.
But when you look at net satisfaction ratings, GMA has never gone over 50 percent. The closest she came was 48 percent in March 2001, when she was, I suppose, still basking in the afterglow of the Estrada ouster.
By contrast, Vice President Noli de Castro has a net – that’s net, mind you – performance rating of plus 51 percent in the October 22-November 6, 2004 survey. That represents a positive rating of a whopping 65 percent and a disapproval rating of 14 percent.
The other, probably even more disturbing, result of the latest Pulse Asia survey is the perceived urgency of selected national issues and the government’s performance rating for each concern. The top four in that list were controlling inflation, eradicating graft and corruption in government, increasing peace in the country and reducing poverty among Filipinos.
The bright light is the government’s peace efforts which registered a net plus 16 approval rate, although this represented a decline from the plus 26 rating of June this year. In all other major concerns, the government scored in the negative range. In poverty reduction, it was minus 19, a slight drop from minus 14 in June. In eradicating graft and corruption, it was minus 15, a steep slide from minus 2 in June which may be partly due to the Gen. Carlos Garcia case.
In the top concern, controlling inflation, the score was a miserable minus 29 versus a previous minus 16. The disapproval rate was 54 percent, a little over half of respondents.
Media also made a point of GMA’s scoring well below the four other top leaders of government. We already noted Kabayan’s plus 51. Senate President Frank Drilon had a plus 40, Chief Justice Hilarion Davide, Jr. a plus 18, and Speaker Jose de Venecia a plus 22. This goes beyond embarrassing, it’s deeply humiliating. On the other hand, the presidency does tend to be the dumping ground of public opprobrium, some of it undeserved.
But not all of it.
For example, GMA indeed cannot be blamed for the high prices of oil. Her buddy and dinner seat-mate, George W. Bush, should take a larger share of that blame for his war on Iraq. But the shattered expectations of people who rejoiced when GMA held down power generation rates of the National Power Corporation, but who were miffed when she reversed herself as the subsidies became too heavy for government to feasibly bear, can’t be laid on anyone else’s lap.
Those were gut issues for consumers and voters. And, as some analysts claim, her biggest imperative then was probably her re-election. But there is always a day of reckoning. Now, pump prices of fuel are up, because of higher prices of crude in the world’s spot markets. In addition, power rates have also gone up since Napocor has been allowed to raise the prices it charges the distribution companies.
The combination of increases of fuel prices, and increases in power rates, have serial bump-up effects on prices down the line. And at the end of that line are the consumers, some of whom are respondents in Pulse Asia’s field surveys.
The big problem is that things aren’t going to get better for the government. In fact, the opposite is the case: Things will get worse for consumers, much worse. But now come those outside kibitzers, prominently GMA’s own international advisers, who hector that the measures taken so far don’t suffice, and the World Bank that insists on tougher measures which must be suffered up-front by our people.
To these gentlemen in pin-striped suits in their cushy board rooms, it matters little that GMA may not have that much political capital left to spend. The hell they care. For them, that’s what it will take to fix the problem.
What they don’t see is that with decreasing confidence in government, this country may already be on an irrevocable path to not only a financial, but a political crisis as well. The situation may rapidly deteriorate into an atmosphere fraught with tantalizing prospects for adventurists and destabilizers, in and out of uniform.
We’re not there yet. But as the Pulse Asia surveys suggest, we may be well on the way there.
Reported by: Sol Jose Vanzi
© Copyright, 2004
by PHILIPPINE HEADLINE NEWS ONLINE
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