TYPHOON 'RAMIL' TO HIT LUZON THIS WEEK; EVACUATION TEAMS ON ALERT
MANILA, OCTOBER 19, 2009 (STAR) By James Mananghaya - Authorities are bracing for the possible evacuation of residents to prevent casualties in areas in Luzon where typhoon “Ramil” is expected to hit this week, a government spokesman said.Lt. Col. Ernesto Torres of the National Disaster Coordinating Council said yesterday that while there are no reported evacuations yet in the areas likely to be affected, they have pre-positioned equipment and personnel in case there is a need to move people to safer ground.
The spokesman said disaster relief and rescue units have been deployed to Cagayan Valley, Ilocos, Central Luzon and the Cordillera regions for possible evacuation of residents.
Torres said military vehicles and personnel and other civilian government assets have already been pre-positioned in the so-called risk areas to ensure a speedy response once evacuation is ordered.
He said local disaster coordinating councils have the authority to order the evacuation of residents.
The government had deployed Air Force C130 cargo planes and military trucks to transport thousands of kilos of relief goods to the affected regions.
“This morning, we have pre-positioned in Region 1 42,000 kilos of relief goods, 21,000 kilos in Region 3, and 22,000 kilos in CAR,” he said.
Torres said that they have disseminated warnings to local government units so they could take the necessary precaution once there is an incident of flooding.
He said Angat Dam in Bulacan has started to release water in preparation for the coming typhoon, but he assured that the process is calibrated and would not cause severe flooding in the province and nearby areas.
Some areas in the province, particularly Calumpit, are still flooded.
“Warnings were issued to regions and municipalities, we are relying on the assessment and decision of the local disaster councils’ if there would be a need to evacuate people to evacuation centers,” he said.
Torres advised residents in riverbanks and coastal areas to monitor closely the developments of the new storm Ramil.
Ramil could become a super typhoon
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) administrator Prisco Nilo said Ramil could still intensify into a super typhoon before making landfall in northern Luzon.
Ramil is the 18th tropical cyclone to visit the country this year and the third weather disturbance this month.
Nilo said provinces that have been hit by typhoon “Pepeng” in the north should prepare for heavy rains and strong winds starting Wednesday morning.
“Ramil is likely to make landfall over the extreme northern Luzon Wednesday evening or Thursday morning,” Nilo said at a press briefing at the Pagasa’s Weather and Flood Forecasting Center in Quezon City.
“But, strong winds and heavy rains could already be experienced in these areas starting Wednesday morning,” he said.
Pagasa deputy administrator Nathaniel Cruz said Ramil would not affect the country for the next 36 hours.
He, however, said the intertropical convergence zone would bring scattered rain showers and thunderstorms over Southern Luzon and the Visayas in the next three days.
Nilo said that even if Ramil would not pass near Metro Manila, it would still experience light rain showers when the typhoon hits Northern Luzon.
He said moderate to rough seas would prevail over the eastern sections of Luzon and the Visayas.
Nilo said that in terms of wind intensity, Ramil could be stronger than Pepeng that killed hundreds of people in northern and central Luzon.
As of 4 p.m. yesterday, the eye of the storm was located at 1,150 kilometers east southeast of Aparri, Cagayan with maximum sustained winds of 175 kilometers per hour near center and gustiness of up to 210 kph.
Cruz said Ramil was forecast to remain almost stationary over the Pacific Ocean in the next few days.
He said the typhoon is expected to move northward slowly within the next 24 hours then it would shift direction to west northwest or west toward extreme northern Luzon.
Ramil is predicted to be at 1,200 km east of Aparri this afternoon; at 830 km northeast of Aparri or at 980 km east of Basco, Batanes tomorrow afternoon.
By Wednesday afternoon, it would be at 630 km east of Basco.
Pagasa has yet to raise a public storm signal warning.
Ramil affected by two weather systems
Nilo said Ramil slowed down yesterday due to the presence of two weather systems, namely a high pressure area (HPA) off Taiwan and a trough positioned north of the typhoon.
A trough is an extended area of relatively lower atmospheric pressure. It can be the extension of a cyclone. It is the opposite of ridge and generally is associated with severe weather.
Ridge, on the other hand, is an elongated area of relatively high atmospheric pressure. Strong ridges are accompanied by warm and dry weather conditions at the surface.
Nilo said Ramil might yet spare the country and head for Taiwan.
“But there is a very slim chance that it will not hit the country,” said Nilo.
“If the trough will stay in its current position – which is north of Ramil, it will likely allow the typhoon to move north and spare the country,” Nilo told reporters.
“The trough, which is currently more dominant than the HPA, will give Ramil the space to move northward,” he said.
But if the trough would move toward the east, it might be replaced by a high pressure area that could block Ramil’s way toward the north and instead force it to move westward and hit extreme northern Luzon.
Pepeng, which entered the country early this month, remained stationary over northern Luzon for almost five days due to its interaction with typhoon “Quedan” and a high pressure area off Hong Kong.
Pepeng lingered for over a week in various parts of the country but it hovered over Pangasinan on Oct. 9 – the day when most of the flooding happened.
Even the Nueva Ecija area, which was not as affected as Pangasinan, also had around 200 to 300 millimeters of rain during this period.
Meanwhile, Pagasa hydrologist Roy Badilla said seven major dams in the country continued to release water as of 10 a.m. yesterday, in anticipation of the heavy rains that could be triggered by the new weather disturbance.
As of 10 a.m. yesterday, the five gates of the Ambuklao and Binga dams in Benguet province continued to spill 129 and 185 cubic meters per second (cms) respectively. Both the dams’ reservoir water levels (RWL) are still below their normal or spilling elevation.
The two gates of the San Roque Dam in Pangasinan continued to spill 731 cms.
The six gates of Angat and Ipo Dams in Bulacan remained open as yesterday, spilling 372 and 267 cms, respectively.
The Pantabangan Dam in Nueva Ecija and Magat Dam in Isabela likewise released 220 and 427 cms, respectively. With Helen Flores
Chief News Editor: Sol Jose Vanzi
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