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IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL: IRAN TO GET $32 BILLION OF UNFROZEN ASSETS AFTER SANCTIONS END


JANUARY 19 -Iran's head of Atomic Energy Organisation (IAEO) Ali Akbar Salehi (L) talks with the Head of the Central Bank of Iran, Valiollah Seif, as they arrive for a press conference of Iranian President on January 17, 2016 in the capital Tehran after international sanctions on Iran were lifted. TEHRAN: Iran will receive $32 billion of unfrozen assets after sanctions were lifted in a deal with world powers over its nuclear programme, Iranian central bank chief Valiollah Seif said today. Seif was quoted by state television as saying that $28 billion would go to the central bank and $4 billion "will be transferred to the state treasury as the share of the government". The unfreezing of assets comes after the UN atomic watchdog confirmed at the weekend that Iran had complied with measures imposed by the deal with global powers reached in Vienna in July. The assets can be used "to buy and import goods, as the entry of such an amount of currency in to the country is not logical," Seif said. The central bank plans to keep the funds "in centralised and safe accounts" abroad, he added. FULL REPORT, RELATED Iran nuclear deal: Five effects of lifting sanctions...

ALSO: Who’s afraid of cheap oil?


JANUARY 23 -Low energy prices ought to be a shot in the arm for the economy. Think again
ALONG with bank runs and market crashes, oil shocks have rare power to set monsters loose. Starting with the Arab oil embargo of 1973, people have learnt that sudden surges in the price of oil cause economic havoc. Conversely, when the price slumps because of a glut, as in 1986, it has done the world a power of good. The rule of thumb is that a 10% fall in oil prices boosts growth by 0.1-0.5 percentage points. In the past 18 months the price has fallen by 75%, from $110 a barrel to below $27. Yet this time the benefits are less certain. Although consumers have gained, producers are suffering grievously. The effects are spilling into financial markets, and could yet depress consumer confidence. Perhaps the benefits of such ultra-cheap oil still outweigh the costs, but markets have fallen so far so fast that even this is no longer clear.
The new economics of oil The world is drowning in oil. Saudi Arabia is pumping at almost full tilt. It is widely thought that the Saudis want to drive out higher-cost producers from the industry, including some of the fracking firms that have boosted oil output in the United States from 5m barrels a day (b/d) in 2008 to over 9m b/d now. Saudi Arabia will also be prepared to suffer a lot of pain to thwart Iran, its bitter rival, which this week was poised to rejoin oil markets as nuclear sanctions were lifted, with potential output of 3m-4m b/d. Despite the Saudis’ efforts, however, producers have proved resilient. Many frackers have eked out efficiencies. They hate the idea of plugging their wells only for the wildcatter on the next block to reap the reward when prices rebound. They will not pack up so long as prices cover day-to-day costs, in some cases as low as $15 a barrel (see article). Meanwhile oil stocks in the mostly rich-country OECD in October stood at 267 days’ net imports, almost 50% higher than five years earlier. They will continue to grow, especially if demand slows by more than expected in China and the rest of Asia. Forecasting the oil price is a mug’s game (as the newspaper that once speculated about $5 oil, we speak from experience), but few expect it to start rising before 2017. Today’s price could mark the bottom of the barrel. Some are predicting a trough of as low as $10. The lower the better, you might say. Look at how cheap oil has boosted importers, from Europe to South Asia. The euro area’s oil-import bill has fallen by 2% of GDP since mid-2014. India has become the world’s fastest-growing large economy. Yet the latest lurch down is also a source of anxiety. Collapsing revenues could bring political instability to fragile parts of the world, such as Venezuela and the Gulf, and fuel rivalries in the Middle East. READ MORE... RELATED, OIL & THE ECONOMY - The oil conundrum...

ALSO: Davos leaders look beyond 2016's early market mayhem


JANUARY 20 A person passes by a logo of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in the congress centre during the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland January 20, 2016. REUTERS/RUBEN SPRICH Blood-letting in global markets is dominating corridor talk as business leaders and policymakers meet in Davos, although so far the view is that it doesn't signal a financial crisis.
As the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Switzerland wrestled with topics ranging from the impact of robots on jobs to gender and wealth inequality, the MSCI World equity index fell to its lowest level since July 2013. If sustained, the 9.9 percent fall in the index in January would be the worst monthly loss since 2009, towards the end of the global financial crisis. "I don't believe this is a repeat of 2008...that is not to say that there are not some very significant risks impacting the market - not least of which is China's slowing growth," John Veihmeyer, Global Chairman of accounting group KPMG, said in the Reuters Global Markets Forum on Wednesday. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its global growth forecasts for the third time in less than a year to 3.4 percent on Tuesday, as new figures showed that the Chinese economy grew at its slowest rate in a quarter of a century in 2015. While China's rapid slowdown, combined with a dramatic fall in the price of oil, has spooked investors around the globe, European Economics Commissioner Pierre Moscovici told Reuters Television he too did not believe there would be any return to an international financial crisis. "I don't feel that the financial crisis is coming back... but there are downsides that we need to address," he said. "There are worries...especially about China which is undergoing a transition which is difficult and uncertain." HARBINGER OF PROBLEMS However, some in Davos were less confident about the outlook for 2016 after the rocky start to the year. "Market turmoil can be a harbinger that something is wrong and even if it is irrational, can have real consequences. What is going on now is a message that the excessive optimism that has been spreading around is wrong,” Nobel Prize-winning U.S. economist Joseph Stiglitz told Reuters. READ MORE...

ALSO: 2016 will test bank resiliency anew – BSP


JANUARY 21- TOAST TO BANKERS: Members of the Monetary Board of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, led by chairman and BSP Governor Amando Tetangco Jr. (center), offer a toast during the annual reception for the banking community at the BSP main complex in Manila Tuesday night. Also in photo are (from left) Monetary Board members Felipe Medalla, Finance Secretary Cesar Purisima, Alfredo Antonio, Armando Suratos, Juan de Zuńiga and Valentin Araneta. MIKE AMOROSO
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) believes the resilience of Philippine banks would be tested anew this year amid the volatile global financial markets brought about by the interest rate liftoff in the US and the economic slowdown in China. BSP Governor Amando Tetangco Jr. said in his speech during the annual reception for the banking community Tuesday night that the country’s sound, stable, and liquid banks would continue to be a major source of funding for the productive sector.
“While 2016 will test the resilience of our banking system, we can rely on the quality of our preparations to manage evolving risks from volatility as market tide shifts,” Tetangco said. He said the Philippine banking sector was a source of strength and stability for the economy last year. He cited the decision of Fitch Ratings to raise the outlook for the Philippine banking sector to positive from stable due to the generally healthy profile of local lenders, sound operating environment and the Philippines’ strong economic fundamentals. “Fitch Ratings has given the Philippine banking system a positive rating outlook for 2016, the only one for Asia-Pacific,” Tetangco said. Latest data showed the asset base of Philippine banks stood at P11 trillion, while the industry’s non-performing loans remained low at 2.3 percent as of end-September last year. READ MORE...

ALSO: Global stocks fall after US turbulence, Chinese weakness


JANUARY 20 -A salesperson plays with balls to attract visitors to his shop selling fashion clothes and souvenirs at Qianmen Street, a popular tourist spot, in Beijing, Wednesday, Jan. 20, 2016. Asian stock prices tumbled Wednesday after the IMF's lower growth forecast added to anxiety over Wall Street turbulence and a weaker Chinese economy. China, the world's second-largest economy cooled further in the latest quarter, dragging 2015's growth to a 25-year low of 6.9 percent. (AP Photo/Andy Wong)

BEIJING — Global stocks sagged Wednesday after the IMF’s lower growth forecast added to anxiety over a weaker Chinese economy. KEEPING SCORE: In early trading, Germany’s DAX tumbled 2.4 percent to 9,436.57 and France’s CAC-40 shed 2.2 percent to 4,176.45. Britain’s FTSE 100 sank 2 percent to 5,762.07. Wall Street looked set for losses. Futures for the Dow Jones industrial average were down 1.9 percent at 15,617.00 and S&P 500 futures lost 1.8 percent to 1,838.60.
IMF OUTLOOK: The International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for this year’s global economic growth to 3.4 percent from its October outlook of 3.6 percent. The IMF downgraded the outlook for developing economies to 4.3 percent growth from a forecast of 4.5 percent in October. Earlier this month, the World Bank cut its global growth forecast to 2.9 percent from last June’s 3.3 percent outlook.
CHINESE SLOWDOWN: The world’s second-largest economy cooled further in the latest quarter, dragging 2015’s growth to a 25-year low of 6.9 percent. The slowdown has dampened demand for goods from oil to iron to heavy machinery. Anxiety over China’s outlook has contributed to oil prices falling to 12-year lows. THE QUOTE: “The stabilization we saw yesterday now appears to have only been a pause” in volatility for financial markets, said IG analyst Angus Nicholson in a report. “China’s somewhat mystifying 3 percent rally in the Shanghai Composite was quickly lost at the open, killing sentiment across the whole Asian region.” READ MORE...

ALSO: Filipino-owned Binalot Fiesta Foods expands in Dubai


JANUARY 23 -BINALOT PRESIDENT
Rommel Juan - Filipino owned Binalot has expanded in Dubai, marking its first foray overseas.
Binalot hopes to open 20 more outlets in the Middle East in the next five years. The company is currently looking for foreign partners that intend to promote Filipino food and culture in their own country, said Binalot Fiesta Foods president Rommel Juan. There are 450,000 Filipinos in Dubai, bringing the total number of Filipinos living in the United Arab Emirates to 700,000. Filipinos constitute 21.3 percent of the population in Dubai so the need for a good Filipino food brand is necessary in this market, he said. The expansion in Dubai was done through a franchise granted to a local company in the Middle Eastern city to ensure it can serve the local market the best way possible. Juan said the company plans to open two more stores in Dubai and eventually even more across the Gulf Cooperation Council. Binalot now joins the roster of local food giants Jollibee Food Corp. and the Maxs group that bared plans for their international expansion. The Jollibee Foods Group has more than 3,000 outlets, of which 630 are abroad. The company earlier announced it formed a joint venture to open 1,400 Dunkin Donut outlets in China. It also bought a 40 percent stake in American fast casual burger chain Smashburger. “We believe Binalot can succeed wherever there are Filipino communities looking for fresh and clean Filipino food,” Juan said. Binalot, known for its Pinoy meals wrapped in banana leaves, now has 34 branches in and outside Metro Manila. THE FULL REPORT.


READ FULL MEDIA REPORTS HERE:

Iran to get $32 billion of unfrozen assets after sanctions end: Central bank chief Valiollah Seif


Iran's head of Atomic Energy Organisation (IAEO) Ali Akbar Salehi (L) talks with the Head of the Central Bank of Iran, Valiollah Seif, as they arrive for a press conference of Iranian President on January 17, 2016 in the capital Tehran after international sanctions on Iran were lifted.

TEHRAN, JANUARY 25, 2016 (ECONOMIC TIMES)  By AFP | 19 Jan, 2016 - TEHRAN: Iran will receive $32 billion of unfrozen assets after sanctions were lifted in a deal with world powers over its nuclear programme, Iranian central bank chief Valiollah Seif said today.

Seif was quoted by state television as saying that $28 billion would go to the central bank and $4 billion "will be transferred to the state treasury as the share of the government".

The unfreezing of assets comes after the UN atomic watchdog confirmed at the weekend that Iran had complied with measures imposed by the deal with global powers reached in Vienna in July.

The assets can be used "to buy and import goods, as the entry of such an amount of currency in to the country is not logical," Seif said.

The central bank plans to keep the funds "in centralised and safe accounts" abroad, he added.

--------------------------------------------

RELATED FROM BBC.COM

Iran nuclear deal: Five effects of lifting sanctions By Kasra Naji BBC Persian 18 January 2016
From the section Middle East


US Secretary of State John Kerry (L) meets Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif (R) in Vienna, Austria on 16 January 2016Image copyrightAFP

Economic sanctions on Iran have been lifted after it agreed to roll back the scope of its nuclear activities. What does this mean for Iran and the rest of the world?

A major crisis has been resolved, for the time being

Iran says the crisis was unnecessary, insisting it never wanted a nuclear bomb. But the P5+1 group of powers - the US, China, Russia, UK, France and Germany - argue that the world is now safer.

The alternative would have been a military attack on Iran's nuclear facilities - something that could have triggered a regional war, possibly drawing in the big powers.

Critics, including Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, argue that the agreement prepares Iran to become a nuclear power in 15 year. They say lifting sanctions will make Iran an economic powerhouse and will bolster its ability to wage war in the region and cause mischief. Mr Netanyahu has issued a statement saying Israel is watching Iran's adherence to the agreement.

Iran's Gulf Arab neighbours are worried


Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir (R) give a press conference with Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) Secretary-General Abdul Latif bin Rashid al-Zayani of Bahrain in Riyadh (9 January 2016)Image copyrightAFP


For Iran, the nuclear agreement's so-called "implementation day" ended more than 10 years of crippling sanctions and international isolation.

The deal enables Tehran to become an active member of the international community once again.

Inevitably, this strengthens Iran's position in a region where most Arab countries are deeply concerned at what they perceive as Iranian Shia expansionism.

Sunni-ruled Gulf states view the nuclear agreement and the lifting of sanctions as a threat and a sign that the West is getting closer to Tehran at their expense. They fear Iran could become more daring in its interventions in the conflicts in Iraq, Syria and Yemen.

The US and other Western powers are keen to enlist Iran's help in the fight against so-called Islamic State (IS) and in the efforts to put an end to the Syrian conflict. But Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies are not convinced Iran can be part of either solution.

Their stock markets fell sharply after sanctions were lifted, even though a third of Iran's imports come from the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

Iran will see an economic rebound


An Iranian vendor displays carpets at his shop in Tehran's Grand Bazaar on 16 January 2016Image copyrightAFP

The lifting of sanctions has opened the Iranian economy - one of the last great untapped emerging markets - to international trade and investment.

Iran can now return to the oil market, and is expected to start exporting an estimated 300,000 barrels per day immediately. This, in an already oversupplied market, will contribute to the falling price of petrol for consumers across the world.

Iran will also have access to more than $100bn (Ł70bn) of money that was frozen overseas. However, it can only spend about $30-50bn, as the rest is thought to be been locked into previous commitments.

The money may be used to import goods and services to renovate and modernise many of Iran's economic sectors.

Already, Tehran is in talks to buy Airbus passenger aircraft by the dozens. The lifting of banking sanctions also means Iran is reconnected to the world financial network.

Critics of the deal say Iran will have more money to buy arms and bankroll its client militias locked in wars in the region.

Iran-US relations are unlikely to improve


A banner depicting a US flag and reading Image copyrightAP

Almost four years of direct secret and open talks between Iran and the US - which have no diplomatic relations - helped bring about the nuclear deal.

The US and Iran have now removed the most important source of tension between them. But huge problems remain.
President Barack Obama has spoken about challenges ahead: Iran is a destabilising factor in the region, threatens Israel, violates human rights at home, and supports terrorism abroad.

Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is equally suspicious of US actions in the region and its intentions in Iran.

He has made it clear that the nuclear agreement is not going to be allowed to open the way for engagement with the US on other issues. And the hardliners around him, including the commanders of the Revolutionary Guards, feel humiliated by the deal. They will no doubt take every opportunity to hit back, with the US responding to their every move.

Rouhani gets a boost ahead of key elections


Hassan Rouhani (17 January 2016)Image copyrightAP

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani described the day the sanctions were lifted as a "golden page" in his country's history and something that could transform its economy.

Mr Rouhani can claim credit for transforming the outlook for Iranians. He was elected on the promise of ending sanctions and has kept it, to the consternation of his hardline rivals.

A hardline newspaper, Vatan-e-Emruz, criticised the nuclear deal as "burying Iran's achievement in cement" - a reference to the removal of the core of the Arak heavy-water reactor and the filling of the cavity with cement last week. The newspaper was also very clear that Mr Rouhani wanted the sanctions lifted in time for February's parliamentary elections.

The polls will be the first test of whether the hardliners can turn the tide in their favour. The president remains vulnerable. Even though the sanctions are gone, Iranians are unlikely to see any immediate benefit before a real turnaround in the economy, which even at best estimates may be a year or two away. High consumer prices are unlikely to come down that fast.


THE ECONOMIST

Who’s afraid of cheap oil? Jan 23rd 2016 | From the print edition Timekeeper


Low energy prices ought to be a shot in the arm for the economy. Think again

ALONG with bank runs and market crashes, oil shocks have rare power to set monsters loose. Starting with the Arab oil embargo of 1973, people have learnt that sudden surges in the price of oil cause economic havoc. Conversely, when the price slumps because of a glut, as in 1986, it has done the world a power of good. The rule of thumb is that a 10% fall in oil prices boosts growth by 0.1-0.5 percentage points.

In the past 18 months the price has fallen by 75%, from $110 a barrel to below $27. Yet this time the benefits are less certain. Although consumers have gained, producers are suffering grievously. The effects are spilling into financial markets, and could yet depress consumer confidence. Perhaps the benefits of such ultra-cheap oil still outweigh the costs, but markets have fallen so far so fast that even this is no longer clear.

The new economics of oil

The world is drowning in oil. Saudi Arabia is pumping at almost full tilt. It is widely thought that the Saudis want to drive out higher-cost producers from the industry, including some of the fracking firms that have boosted oil output in the United States from 5m barrels a day (b/d) in 2008 to over 9m b/d now. Saudi Arabia will also be prepared to suffer a lot of pain to thwart Iran, its bitter rival, which this week was poised to rejoin oil markets as nuclear sanctions were lifted, with potential output of 3m-4m b/d.

Despite the Saudis’ efforts, however, producers have proved resilient. Many frackers have eked out efficiencies. They hate the idea of plugging their wells only for the wildcatter on the next block to reap the reward when prices rebound. They will not pack up so long as prices cover day-to-day costs, in some cases as low as $15 a barrel (see article).

Meanwhile oil stocks in the mostly rich-country OECD in October stood at 267 days’ net imports, almost 50% higher than five years earlier. They will continue to grow, especially if demand slows by more than expected in China and the rest of Asia.

Forecasting the oil price is a mug’s game (as the newspaper that once speculated about $5 oil, we speak from experience), but few expect it to start rising before 2017. Today’s price could mark the bottom of the barrel. Some are predicting a trough of as low as $10.

The lower the better, you might say. Look at how cheap oil has boosted importers, from Europe to South Asia. The euro area’s oil-import bill has fallen by 2% of GDP since mid-2014. India has become the world’s fastest-growing large economy.

Yet the latest lurch down is also a source of anxiety. Collapsing revenues could bring political instability to fragile parts of the world, such as Venezuela and the Gulf, and fuel rivalries in the Middle East.

READ MORE...

Cheap oil has a green lining, as it drags down the global price of natural gas, which crowds out coal, a dirtier fuel. But in the long run, cheap fossil fuels reduce the incentive to act on climate change. Most worrying of all is the corrosive new economics of oil.

In the past cheap oil has buoyed the world economy because consumers spend much more out of one extra dollar in their pocket than producers do. Today that reckoning is less straightforward than it was. American consumers may have been saving more than was expected. Oil producers are tightening their belts, having spent extravagantly when prices were high. After the latest drop in crude prices, Russia announced a 10% cut in public spending (see article). Even Saudi Arabia is slashing its budget to deal with its deficit of 15% of GDP.

Cheap oil also hurts demand in more important ways. When crude was over $100 a barrel it made sense to spend on exploration in out-of-the-way provinces, such as the Arctic, west Africa and deep below the saline rock off the coast of Brazil. As prices have tumbled, so has investment. Projects worth $380 billion have been put on hold.

In America spending on fixed assets in the oil industry has fallen by half from its peak. The poison has spread: the purchasing managers’ index for December, of 48.2, registered an accelerating contraction across the whole of American manufacturing. In Brazil the harm to Petrobras, the national oil company, from the oil price has been exacerbated by a corruption scandal that has paralysed the highest echelons of government.


INTERACTIVE: Explore how oil prices affect OPEC and non-OPEC production and viability

The fall in investment and asset prices is all the more harmful because it is so rapid. As oil collapses against the backdrop of a fragile world economy, it could trigger defaults.

The possible financial spillovers are hard to assess. Much of the $650 billion rise in emerging-market corporate debt since 2007 has been in oil and commodity industries. Oil plays a central role in a clutch of emerging markets prone to trouble. With GDP in Russia falling, the government could well face a budgetary crisis within months. Venezuela, where inflation is above 140%, has declared an economic state of emergency.

Other oil producers are prone to a similar, if milder, cycle of weaker growth, a falling currency, imported inflation and tighter monetary policy. Central banks in Colombia and Mexico raised interest rates in December. Nigeria is rationing dollars in a desperate (probably doomed) effort to boost its currency.

There are strains in rich countries, too. Yields on corporate high-yield bonds have jumped from about 6.5% in mid-2015 to 9.7% today. Investors’ aversion spread quickly from energy firms to all borrowers. With bears stalking equity markets, global indices are plumbing 30-month lows (see article). Central bankers in rich countries worry that persistent low inflation will feed expectations of static or falling prices—in effect, raising real interest rates. Policymakers’ ability to respond is constrained because rates, close to zero, cannot be cut much more.

Make the best of it

The oil-price drop creates vast numbers of winners in India and China. It gives oil-dependent economies like Saudi Arabia and Venezuela an urgent reason to embrace reform. It offers oil importers, like South Korea, a chance to tear up wasteful energy subsidies—or boost inflation and curb deficits by raising taxes. But this oil shock comes as the world economy is still coping with the aftermath of the financial crash.

You might think that there could be no better time for a boost. In fact, the world could yet be laid low by an oil monster on the prowl.

-------------------------------

RELATED FROM THE ECONOMIST

OIL & THE ECONOMY - The oil conundrum Jan 23rd 2016 | From the print edition Timekeeper


Plunging prices have neither halted oil production nor stimulated a surge in global growth

OIL traders are paying unusual attention to Kharg, a small island 25km (16 miles) off the coast of Iran.

On its lee side, identifiable to orbiting satellites by the transponders on their decks, are half a dozen or so huge oil tankers that have been anchored there for months.

Farther down Iran’s Persian Gulf coast is another flotilla of similarly vast vessels. They contain up to 50m barrels of Iranian crude—just what a world awash with oil could do without.

The lifting of nuclear-related sanctions against Iran on January 16th puts those barrels at the forefront of the country’s quest to recapture a share of international oil markets that it has been shut out of for much of the past decade.

The prospect of Iran swiftly dispatching its supertankers to European and Asian refineries to undercut supplies from Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Russia helped push the world’s main benchmarks, Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI), to their lowest levels since 2003 on January 20th; WTI tumbled by 6.7% to under $27 a barrel, its biggest one-day fall since September (see chart 1).

The slide marks the latest act in a dramatic reversal of fortunes for the oil industry that is, in turn, roiling the global economy.

Less than a decade ago the world scrambled for oil, largely to fuel China’s commodity-hungry growth spurt, pushing prices to over $140 a barrel in 2008. State-owned oil giants such as Saudi Aramco had access to the cheapest reserves, forcing private oil firms to search farther afield—in the Arctic, Brazil’s pre-salt fields and deep waters off Angola—for resources deemed ever scarcer.

Investors, concerned that the oil majors could run out of growth opportunities, encouraged the search for pricey oil, rewarding potential future growth in production as much as profitability.

Now the fear for producers is of an excess of oil, rather than a shortage. The addition to global supply over the past five years of 4.2m barrels a day (b/d) from America’s shale producers, although only 5% of global production, has had an outsized impact on the market by raising the prospects of recovering vast amounts of resources formerly considered too hard to extract. On January 19th the International Energy Agency (IEA), a prominent energy forecaster, issued a stark warning: “The oil market could drown in oversupply.”

Last year the world produced 96.3m b/d of oil, of which it consumed only 94.5m b/d.

So each day about 1.8m barrels went into storage tanks—which are filling up fast. Though new storage is being built, too much oil would cause the tanks to overflow. The only place to put the spare barrels would be in tankers out to sea, like the Iranian oil sitting off Kharg, waiting for demand to recover.


Iranian Offshore Oil Company (IOOC), is one of the world's largest offshore oil producing companies. with over a half century of experience. The Company shares one third of Iranian oil export, operating in Iranian side of the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea .

For oil producers that is an alarming prospect, yet for the most part warnings such as those of the IEA have gone unheeded. This poses two puzzles.

When, in November 2014, Saudi Arabia forced OPEC to keep the taps open despite plummeting prices, it hoped quickly to drive higher-cost producers in America and elsewhere out of business. Analysts expected a snappy rebound in prices. Though oil firms have since collectively suspended investment in $380 billion of new projects, as yet there is no sign of a bottom. Projections for a meaningful recovery in the oil price have been pushed back until at least 2017.

The economic impact of the oversupply is another enigma.

Cheaper fuel should stimulate global economic growth. Industries that use oil as an input are more profitable. The benefits to consuming nations typically outweigh the costs to producing ones. But so far in 2016 a 28% lurch downwards in oil prices has coincided with turmoil in global stockmarkets.

It is as if the markets are challenging long-held assumptions about the economic benefits of low energy prices, or asserting that global economic growth is so anaemic that an oil glut will do little to help.

Iran is the most immediate cause of the bearishness.

It promises an immediate boost to production of 500,000 b/d, just when other members of OPEC such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq are pumping at record levels. Even if its target is over-optimistic, seething rivalry between the rulers in Tehran and Riyadh make it hard to imagine that the three producers could agree to the sort of production discipline that OPEC has used to attempt to rescue prices in the past.

Even if OPEC tried to reassert its influence, the producers’ cartel would probably fail because the oil industry has changed in several ways. Shale-oil producers, using technology that is both cheaper and quicker to deploy than conventional oil rigs, have made the industry more entrepreneurial.

Big depreciations against the dollar have helped beleaguered economies such as Russia, Brazil and Venezuela to maintain output, by increasing local-currency revenues relative to costs. And growing fears about action on climate change, coupled with the emergence of alternative-energy technologies, suggests to some producers that it is best to pump as hard as they can, while they can.

This is not the first time OPEC has overestimated the effectiveness of what, during the era of John Rockefeller’s Standard Oil, used to be called “a good sweating”: attempting to flood the market with cut-price oil to drive competitors out of business.

In the mid-1980s the cartel sought to use low prices to undercut producers in the North Sea, but failed. They enacted a policy to recoup market share from their non-OPEC rivals, but ended up trying to defeat each other, further weakening prices. It took several years for oil prices to recover.

It’s a time-worn miscalculation.

In his book “The Prize”, Daniel Yergin quotes an American academic writing as far back as 1926 about the “spectacle” of massive overproduction. “Oil producers were committing ‘hara-kiri’ by producing so much oil,” the scholar wrote. “All saw the remedy but would not adopt it. The remedy was, of course, a reduction in the production.”

Yet there is also a reason for keeping the pumps working that is not as suicidal as it sounds.

One of the remarkable features of last year’s oil market was the resilience of American shale producers in the face of falling prices.

Since mid-2015 shale firms have cut more than 400,000 b/d from output in response to lower prices. Nevertheless, America still increased oil production more than any other country in the year as a whole, producing an additional 900,000 b/d, according to the IEA.

During the year the number of drilling rigs used in America fell by over 60%.

Normally that would be considered a strong indicator of lower output. Yet it is one thing to drill wells, another to conduct the hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”) that gets the shale oil flowing out. Rystad Energy, a Norwegian consultancy, noted late last year that the “frack-count”, ie, the number of wells fracked, was still rising, explaining the resilience of oil production.

The roughnecks used other innovations to keep the oil gushing, such as injecting more sand into their wells to improve flow, using better data-gathering techniques and employing a skeleton staff to keep costs down.


he Bakken shale oil formation (an oilfield stretching from Canada to North Dakota and Montana)

The money is no longer flowing in. America’s once-rowdy oil towns, where three years ago strippers could make hundreds of dollars a night from itinerant oilmen, are now full of abandoned trailer parks and boarded-up businesses. But the oil is still flowing out.

Even some of the oldest shale fields, such as the Bakken in North Dakota, were still producing at the same level in November as more than a year before.

The shale industry also benefited from financial engineering. Last year at least half of the firms involved had hedged the oil price to protect revenues. Some went bankrupt, but most have managed to sweet-talk bankers into keeping the credit flowing—at least until the latest crisis.

It is not just the shale industry that managed to keep its head above water longer than expected.

Those extracting in more expensive places, such as Canada’s oil sands and Brazilian pre-salt, have too.


A 2012 PHOTO FROM THE FINANCIAL POST: The Standing Senate Committee on Energy, the Environment and Natural Resources  looks favourably upon the prospect of shipping western Canadian crude to the East for refining and marketing in Ontario, Quebec, Atlantic Canada and international markets.

Canada, whose low-quality benchmark oil, West Canada Select, is trading below $15 a barrel, giving it the ignominious title of the world’s lowest-value crude, is one of the non-OPEC countries expected to add most to global supply this year. So is Brazil, despite debt and corruption at its state oil company, Petrobras.

Meanwhile, the oil majors have said they will slash tens of thousands of jobs and billions of dollars in investment, but they too are reluctant to abandon projects that may add to future production. Shell, an Anglo-Dutch company, took the rare decision to abandon exploration in the Arctic and a heavy-oil project in Canada but its current output of 2.9m b/d in 2015 was only just shy of the previous year’s 3.1m b/d.

In the industry at large, the incentive is to keep producing “as flat out as you can”, once investment costs have been sunk into the ground, says Simon Henry, Shell’s chief financial officer. He says it is sometimes more expensive to stop production than to keep pumping at low prices, because of the high cost of mothballing wells.

Simon Flowers of Wood Mackenzie, an industry consultancy, says that even at $30 a barrel, only 6% of global production fails to cover its operating costs. It may be uneconomic to drill new deepwater wells at prices under $60 a barrel, he says, but once they are built it may still make economic sense to keep them running at prices well below that (see chart 2). Such resilience is used by some to justify why they expect prices to remain “lower for longer”.

In theory a long period of low oil prices should benefit the global economy. The world is both a producer and a consumer: what producers lose and consumers gain from a drop in prices sums to zero. Conventionally, extra spending by oil importers exceeds cuts in spending by exporters, boosting global aggregate demand.

The economies that have enjoyed the strongest GDP growth in the past year have indeed been oil importers: India, Pakistan and countries in east Africa. It is hard to explain the consumer-led recovery in the euro area without assuming a positive impact from lower oil prices.

In the IMF’s latest forecast, published on January 19th, the handful of big economies that were spared downgrades to GDP growth—China, India, Germany, Britain, Spain and Italy—were all net oil importers.

Where are the windfalls?

There are doubts that this holds true everywhere. America is both a large producer and consumer of oil. At the start of 2015, JPMorgan, a bank, reckoned that cheap oil would boost GDP by around 0.7%—a boost to consumers’ purchasing power equivalent to 1% of GDP, offset by a smaller drag from weaker oil-industry investment.

It now reckons the outcome was between a contraction of 0.3% and a boost of a measly 0.1%. Consumers may have saved more of the windfall than had seemed likely and the share of oil-related capital spending in total business investment in America, which had steadily risen for years, has fallen by half (see chart 3).

Add in the indirect effects of the downturn in the oil industry and the net impact of cheap oil may even have been a bigger decline than JPMorgan’s most pessimistic estimate. That has been the experience of the MSC Industrial Supply Company, an American retailer of hinges, brackets, power tools and maintenance equipment to manufacturers. It does not rely directly on orders from oil companies, yet this month its boss, Erik David Gershwind, said that fallout from the oil shock had had a noticeable impact on sales. “The indirect exposure is, I think, what’s taken everybody by surprise, not only at MSC but in the broader economy, and it’s ugly.”

Unsurprisingly some of the biggest splashes of red ink in the IMF’s latest forecast revisions were reserved for countries where oil exploration and production has played a significant role in the economy: Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Russia (and some of its oil-producing neighbours) and Nigeria. Weaker demand in this group owes much to strains on their public finances.

Russia has said it will cut public spending by a further 10% in response to the latest drop in crude prices (see article).

The oil industry accounts for 70% of tax revenue in Nigeria. When the oil price plunged in 2008-09, it was able to draw on savings it had salted away in an oil-stabilisation fund. But in June the country’s president, Muhammadu Buhari, said the treasury was “virtually empty”. Saudi Arabia has deeper pockets but, with a budget deficit that reached 15% of GDP last year, even it has been forced to cut public spending.

The old calculus that such countries were able to smooth spending through the oil-price cycle has become less reliable. To a larger degree than in the past, oil producers have spent windfall revenues, and now have been forced to cut back. This compounds the effect on aggregate demand of falling investment in the oil industry.

Perhaps more worrying is the way the oil-price drop is compounding the effect of financial fragility worldwide. Low interest rates in America and Europe after 2009 drew rich-world investors into emerging markets, creating a lending boom.

Corporate debt in emerging markets rose from 50% of GDP in 2008 to 75% in 2014. The lesson of recent history is that a rapid build-up in debt leads to trouble. Along with construction, the oil and gas industry saw a big increase in corporate debt, according to the IMF’s latest Global Financial Stability Report. Lower oil revenues make it harder to service this burden.

When the oil price slumped in 2008-09 oil-producing countries were able to cut interest rates and borrow abroad to prop up demand. Now investors are charier of risk. The end of the Federal Reserve’s programme of bond buying (“quantitative easing”) in 2014 and the recent increase in interest rates has drawn money back to America, boosting the dollar and tightening global monetary conditions.

Oil producers, notably in Latin America, are having to tighten domestic monetary policy to tackle inflation, in part caused by big falls in their currencies. Brazil’s central bank has kept interest rates high, even though its economy is deep in recession. Central banks in Colombia and Mexico raised rates in December.

The same strains are evident in oil-rich Nigeria and Angola, the largest and third-largest economies in sub-Saharan Africa. The easier financial conditions in the years after 2009 gave policymakers in Africa a false sense of their own resilience, says Stuart Culverhouse of Exotix, a broker.

Ready for a shock Investors appear to be rethinking how risky assets should be priced in rich countries, too. This is as much a response to concerns about the strength of China’s economy as to the damage a sharp fall in oil prices might wreak. Worries about delinquent borrowers in the oil industry triggered a sharp rise in their yields in America’s junk-bond market at the end of last year. The yields on junk bonds issued by other sorts of borrowers rose in apparent sympathy. Even yields on investment-grade bonds are edging up.

Stockmarket bears are quick to point out that higher real interest rates on corporate bonds make it harder to justify elevated share prices. Central bankers in rich countries say they worry that a long period of near-zero inflation is entrenching beliefs that prices will remain endlessly flat. The real rate of interest rises when expectations of inflation fall and it is hard for policymakers to respond to this as rates are already close to zero.

Since the start of the year, the supply shock from Iran has also been accompanied by fears of a demand one from China. The bungled handling of China’s stockmarket and currency has raised fears about the economy, which has spilled over into the oil market. As global financial markets have descended into turmoil, there are mounting worries about the resilience of the global economy, too. That, in turn, raises anxiety about future oil demand.

Macroeconomic concerns are paramount, but there are also microeconomic ones. Lower fuel subsidies in some oil-producing countries, aimed at plugging budget deficits, are encouraging car owners to drive less miles.

China has said that it will not allow petrol prices to fall in line with oil below $40 a barrel, which will have the same effect. Even in the United States, the link between cheap petrol and gas-guzzling is less strong than it was. Part of the reason, analysts say, is that vehicles are more fuel-efficient.

Green and black After the Paris summit on climate change in December some pundits reckon that the latest oil crisis reflects a structural change in oil consumption because of environmental concerns—what some call “peak demand”. It is true that as climate consciousness grows, oil companies are developing more gas than oil, hoping to deploy it as an energy substitute for coal. But it may be too early to assume that the era of the petrol engine is coming to an end.

More likely, the oil price will eventually find a bottom and, if this cycle is like previous ones, shoot sharply higher because of the level of underinvestment in reserves and natural depletion of existing wells. Yet the consequences will be different. Antoine Halff of Columbia University’s Centre on Global Energy Policy told American senators on January 19th that the shale-oil industry, with its unique cost structure and short business cycle, may undermine longer-term investment in high-cost traditional oilfields. The shalemen, rather than the Saudis, could well become the world’s swing producers, adding to volatility, perhaps, but within a relatively narrow range.

Big oil firms would then face some existential questions.

In the future, should they carry on as before, splurging on expensive vanity projects in hard-to-reach places, at the risk of having “unburnable” reserves as environmental concerns mount? Should they reinvest their profits in shale or in greener technologies? Or should they return profits to shareholders, as some tobacco companies have done, marking the beginning of the end of the fossil-fuel era? Whatever they do, the era of oil shocks is far from over.


REUTERS

Davos leaders look beyond 2016's early market mayhem Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:33pm EST DAVOS, SWITZERLAND | BY KIRSTEN DONOVAN AND ELIZABETH PIPER


A person passes by a logo of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in the congress centre during the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland January 20, 2016. REUTERS/RUBEN SPRICH

Blood-letting in global markets is dominating corridor talk as business leaders and policymakers meet in Davos, although so far the view is that it doesn't signal a financial crisis.

As the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Switzerland wrestled with topics ranging from the impact of robots on jobs to gender and wealth inequality, the MSCI World equity index fell to its lowest level since July 2013.

If sustained, the 9.9 percent fall in the index in January would be the worst monthly loss since 2009, towards the end of the global financial crisis.

"I don't believe this is a repeat of 2008...that is not to say that there are not some very significant risks impacting the market - not least of which is China's slowing growth," John Veihmeyer, Global Chairman of accounting group KPMG, said in the Reuters Global Markets Forum on Wednesday.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its global growth forecasts for the third time in less than a year to 3.4 percent on Tuesday, as new figures showed that the Chinese economy grew at its slowest rate in a quarter of a century in 2015.

While China's rapid slowdown, combined with a dramatic fall in the price of oil, has spooked investors around the globe, European Economics Commissioner Pierre Moscovici told Reuters Television he too did not believe there would be any return to an international financial crisis.

"I don't feel that the financial crisis is coming back... but there are downsides that we need to address," he said.

"There are worries...especially about China which is undergoing a transition which is difficult and uncertain."

HARBINGER OF PROBLEMS

However, some in Davos were less confident about the outlook for 2016 after the rocky start to the year.

"Market turmoil can be a harbinger that something is wrong and even if it is irrational, can have real consequences. What is going on now is a message that the excessive optimism that has been spreading around is wrong,” Nobel Prize-winning U.S. economist Joseph Stiglitz told Reuters.

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While Moscovici said he was confident that the world's central banks have the ammunition to revive the global economy after years of record low interest rates and quantitative easing, Stiglitz was not convinced.

“The Fed (U.S. Federal Reserve) doesn't get it. The Fed raises interest rates, Brazil raises interest rates in a world in which things are not good. Central banks are often more out of tune with reality than markets,” Stiglitz said, adding he saw no chance of any intervention at a G7 or G20 level.

Veteran British businessman Roger Carr, who is chairman of British defense group BAE Systems, said the future was not looking bright.

"This time last year in Davos there was a very different environment, it was quite benign. The issue was the haves and the have nots, it wasn't: 'are we all going to have less?'."

"It is very pessimistic at the moment," he told Reuters.

HEALTHY CORRECTION

However, bankers such as former Barclays chief executive Bob Diamond said the slowdown in Chinese growth was a "healthy correction" which, while serious, was needed.

Diamond, who now invests in Africa, told reporters that the situation now was not comparable to the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first of 2009 which he described as "the deepest economic correction I have ever seen" as the U.S economy was growing and western Europe was doing well.

This was echoed by Professor Ding Yuan, vice-president and dean of the China Europe International Business School in Shanghai, who told Reuters it would be wrong to take the small devaluation of the Chinese yuan and the falls in the Shanghai 300 index as indicators of China's economic health.

“This is only short-term volatility... People are focusing on the short term too much. We should be looking at the next five years, not the next two months,” he said.

For CEOs at Davos trying to navigate the year ahead, the price of oil remains the great unknown.

"In many of the markets we operate in, the oil price is clearly a major factor of the health of the economy. We're expecting governments to adapt to this new current order of oil prices, whether they're at $30 or lower or higher. Who knows what's going to happen in 2016?" Vimpelcom CEO Jean-Yves Charlier told Reuters in an interview. (Reporting by Paul Taylor, Martinne Geller, Elizabeth Piper; Sujata Rao, Carmel Crimmins, Dmitry Zhdannikov and Noah Barkin; Writing by Alexander Smith; Editing by Anna Willard)


PHILSTAR

2016 will test bank resiliency anew – BSP By Lawrence Agcaoili (The Philippine Star) | Updated January 21, 2016 - 12:00am 0 0 googleplus0 0


TOAST TO BANKERS: Members of the Monetary Board of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, led by chairman and BSP Governor Amando Tetangco Jr. (center), offer a toast during the annual reception for the banking community at the BSP main complex in Manila Tuesday night. Also in photo are (from left) Monetary Board members Felipe Medalla, Finance Secretary Cesar Purisima, Alfredo Antonio, Armando Suratos, Juan de Zuńiga and Valentin Araneta. MIKE AMOROSO

MANILA, Philippines – The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) believes the resilience of Philippine banks would be tested anew this year amid the volatile global financial markets brought about by the interest rate liftoff in the US and the economic slowdown in China.

BSP Governor Amando Tetangco Jr. said in his speech during the annual reception for the banking community Tuesday night that the country’s sound, stable, and liquid banks would continue to be a major source of funding for the productive sector.

“While 2016 will test the resilience of our banking system, we can rely on the quality of our preparations to manage evolving risks from volatility as market tide shifts,” Tetangco said.

He said the Philippine banking sector was a source of strength and stability for the economy last year.

He cited the decision of Fitch Ratings to raise the outlook for the Philippine banking sector to positive from stable due to the generally healthy profile of local lenders, sound operating environment and the Philippines’ strong economic fundamentals.

“Fitch Ratings has given the Philippine banking system a positive rating outlook for 2016, the only one for Asia-Pacific,” Tetangco said.

Latest data showed the asset base of Philippine banks stood at P11 trillion, while the industry’s non-performing loans remained low at 2.3 percent as of end-September last year.

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“The combined resources of the banking industry are sufficient to finance the requirements of the real economy,” Tetangco said.

Tetangco said, the banking sector more than meets the BSP and international standards amid the continued build-up in their capital base, allowing the industry to survive the global financial turmoil brought about by the interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve, the slowing inflation in the euro zone and Japan as well as the economic slowdown in China.

“In fact, our semestral stress tests confirm further that bank capitalization stands resilient, even against extreme tail events. Indeed, the numbers do speak for themselves,” he added.

The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth accelerated to six percent in the third quarter from the revised 5.8 percent in the second quarter of last year on the back of robust domestic demand and improving government spending.

On the other hand, inflation eased to a 20-year low of 1.4 percent last year from 4.1 percent in 2014 due to stable food prices and cheaper utility rates amid the continued decline in oil prices.

“Indeed, for our banks, 2015 was a year that tested their resilience but they came out of it stronger and more stable. Now, we start 2016 from a position of strength. This is a good place to start. We have done our homework,” he said.

The BSP chief reiterated that Philippine banks would be able to manage external risks that may arise from continuing volatility and possible contagion and closer to home avoid excessive leverage and imprudent practices


INQUIRER

Global stocks fall after US turbulence, Chinese weakness @inquirerdotnet Associated Press
05:11 PM January 20th, 2016


A salesperson plays with balls to attract visitors to his shop selling fashion clothes and souvenirs at Qianmen Street, a popular tourist spot, in Beijing, Wednesday, Jan. 20, 2016. Asian stock prices tumbled Wednesday after the IMF's lower growth forecast added to anxiety over Wall Street turbulence and a weaker Chinese economy. China, the world's second-largest economy cooled further in the latest quarter, dragging 2015's growth to a 25-year low of 6.9 percent. (AP Photo/Andy Wong)

BEIJING — Global stocks sagged Wednesday after the IMF’s lower growth forecast added to anxiety over a weaker Chinese economy.

KEEPING SCORE: In early trading, Germany’s DAX tumbled 2.4 percent to 9,436.57 and France’s CAC-40 shed 2.2 percent to 4,176.45. Britain’s FTSE 100 sank 2 percent to 5,762.07. Wall Street looked set for losses. Futures for the Dow Jones industrial average were down 1.9 percent at 15,617.00 and S&P 500 futures lost 1.8 percent to 1,838.60.

IMF OUTLOOK: The International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for this year’s global economic growth to 3.4 percent from its October outlook of 3.6 percent. The IMF downgraded the outlook for developing economies to 4.3 percent growth from a forecast of 4.5 percent in October. Earlier this month, the World Bank cut its global growth forecast to 2.9 percent from last June’s 3.3 percent outlook.

CHINESE SLOWDOWN: The world’s second-largest economy cooled further in the latest quarter, dragging 2015’s growth to a 25-year low of 6.9 percent. The slowdown has dampened demand for goods from oil to iron to heavy machinery. Anxiety over China’s outlook has contributed to oil prices falling to 12-year lows.

THE QUOTE: “The stabilization we saw yesterday now appears to have only been a pause” in volatility for financial markets, said IG analyst Angus Nicholson in a report. “China’s somewhat mystifying 3 percent rally in the Shanghai Composite was quickly lost at the open, killing sentiment across the whole Asian region.”

READ MORE...

ASIA’S DAY: Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 fell 3.7 percent to 16,416.19 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng retreated 3.8 percent to 18,886.30. The Shanghai Composite Index lost 1 percent to 2,976.69 and South Korea’s Kospi was off 2.3 percent at 1,845.45. Australia’s ASX/S&P 200 shed 1.3 percent to 4,841.50. India’s Sensex was down 1.9 percent at 24,005.56. Markets in Southeast Asia also retreated.

WALL STREET: U.S. stocks struggled through turbulent trading Tuesday and eked out small gains, led by utility and consumer stocks. The Dow rose as much as 183 points in the first minutes of trading Tuesday. Gains faded in the afternoon before a late spurt of buying. The Dow ended up 27.94 points, or 0.2 percent, at 16,016.02. The S&P 500 rose one point to 1,881.33. The Nasdaq composite index fell 11.47 points, or 0.3 percent, to 4,476.95. Major indexes had plunged Friday, and the Dow and S&P 500 are coming off their worst opening weeks of a year in history.

ENERGY: Benchmark U.S. crude for March delivery was down 88 cents at $28.70 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The February contract, which expires Wednesday, fell 96 cents to $28.46 on Tuesday. Brent crude, a benchmark for international oils, lost 60 cents to $28.16 in London. The contract rose 21 cents on Tuesday to close at $28.76.

CURRENCIES: The dollar declined to 116.20 yen from 117.46 in the previous trading session. The euro rose to $1.0964 from $1.0922. TVJ


PHILSTAR

Binalot expands in Dubai By Iris Gonzales (The Philippine Star) | Updated January 23, 2016 - 12:00am 0 2 googleplus0 0


Juan Rommel

MANILA, Philippines - Filipino owned Binalot has expanded in Dubai, marking its first foray overseas.

Binalot hopes to open 20 more outlets in the Middle East in the next five years.

The company is currently looking for foreign partners that intend to promote Filipino food and culture in their own country, said Binalot Fiesta Foods president Rommel Juan.

There are 450,000 Filipinos in Dubai, bringing the total number of Filipinos living in the United Arab Emirates to 700,000.

Filipinos constitute 21.3 percent of the population in Dubai so the need for a good Filipino food brand is necessary in this market, he said.

The expansion in Dubai was done through a franchise granted to a local company in the Middle Eastern city to ensure it can serve the local market the best way possible.

Juan said the company plans to open two more stores in Dubai and eventually even more across the Gulf Cooperation Council.

Binalot now joins the roster of local food giants Jollibee Food Corp. and the Maxs group that bared plans for their international expansion.

The Jollibee Foods Group has more than 3,000 outlets, of which 630 are abroad.

The company earlier announced it formed a joint venture to open 1,400 Dunkin Donut outlets in China. It also bought a 40 percent stake in American fast casual burger chain Smashburger.

“We believe Binalot can succeed wherever there are Filipino communities looking for fresh and clean Filipino food,” Juan said.

Binalot, known for its Pinoy meals wrapped in banana leaves, now has 34 branches in and outside Metro Manila.


Chief News Editor: Sol Jose Vanzi

 


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