ANALYSTS: WORLD POORLY SET TO MEET NEW ECO CRISIS /WHAT IS DOWNGRADE?
LONDON/FRANFURT, AUGUST 11, 2011 (REUTERS) With financial markets in turmoil and economic growth slowing, policymakers around the world may once again be forced to cooperate to try to head off a crisis, as they did successfully in 2008-2009. But this time, they have fewer good options.
Central banks have less room to ease monetary policy than they did three years ago; cash-strapped governments cannot afford to boost spending as much; and political disarray in some countries may make concerted global policymaking harder.
"What can you do? On monetary policy, clearly no one agrees with anyone. On fiscal policy, everyone is blocked," said Deutsche Bank economist Gilles Moec.
By some measures, the global situation is not nearly as bad as it was in 2008. Banks have strengthened themselves since the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the world is still far from a recession; JPMorgan may have cut its forecast for 2012 U.S. growth this week but it still expects an expansion of 1 percent.
Global stocks have dropped nearly 10 percent in the last month but MSCI’s world equity index is still 90 percent above its 2009 low.
"I know people are saying that this feels very much like 2008 but I don’t think we are there. In 2008, you could point at the problem in the banking sector and there were failed banks," said Nomura economist Jens Sondergaard.
Still, the trends have clearly turned negative. National purchasing managers indexes around the world have dropped near or below the "boom or bust" threshold separating economic growth from contraction. This week’s slide of British government bond yields to record lows underlines both investor nervousness and a grim growth outlook.
In some ways, the situation is more worrying than it was in 2008: There is widespread concern about the risk of a downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating, and a bond market attack on Italy, the euro zone’s third-biggest economy, has called into question the long-term viability of the zone. Valuations of U.S. and European bank shares are back around levels hit at the time of Lehman’s collapse.
"The difference (between 2008 and now) is that this is not only a currency and banking crisis, you have now a currency, banking and sovereign crisis," said Sylvain Broyer, analyst at European financial firm Natixis.
The Swiss central bank’s shock decision to cut interest rates on Wednesday to fight the rapid appreciation of the Swiss franc was seen by some analysts as a possible precursor to concerted efforts by central banks in the Group of 20 nations to stabilize markets.
Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at European investment bank Saxo Bank, said the G20 nations were likely for now to leave it up to their central banks, which can act relatively flexibly and quickly, to handle market turmoil.
But if the economic climate keeps worsening, perhaps with another 10 percent fall by global stocks, G20 governments may be pushed into making a concerted pledge of action to protect markets and growth, as they did at a London summit in April 2009, he said.
By displaying solidarity among world leaders and promising $1.1 trillion for global lending institutions and trade financing, the London summit succeeded in reassuring investors enough to support a recovery in markets and economic growth.
Now, however, it may be harder for governments to show such solidarity. President Barack Obama has been weakened politically, and his economic policy options narrowed, by his battle to push up the U.S. debt ceiling.
Some big countries are further along in their election cycles, complicating decisions. Important elections are due in the United States, Germany and France over the next couple of years, as well as a leadership change in China.
"The maneuverability of governments is much less than it was in the last crisis. A lot of people want to be seen not to be caving in to pressure," Jakobsen said.
During the 2008-2009 crisis, the International Monetary Fund played a major role in coordinating the global response, but there are now signs of internal division, with powerful emerging economies criticizing the policies of Western governments.
Last month, Brazilian and Indian directors of the IMF warned the Fund’s management against pouring more large sums of aid into the euro zone debt crisis, while official Chinese media have denounced U.S. politicians as globally irresponsible over the debt ceiling dispute.
These tensions may complicate G20 agreements on action in several areas:
Joint currency intervention. This is the most likely initial form of G20 cooperation because well-tried mechanisms for it already exist; central banks could send a message that they want stability in markets by intervening massively to stop appreciation of the Swiss franc or Japanese yen.
But China and the rest of the world are still far from agreeing on a more fundamental problem in the global currency system -- the value of the Chinese yuan.
Coordinated interest rate cuts. In October 2008, six Western central banks cut interest rates in a coordinated move, while China also eased policy.
Global central bankers may signal an easier policy bias when they meet in Jackson Hole in the United States on August 25-27. But coordinated rate cuts look unlikely in the foreseeable future because some central banks such as the U.S. Federal Reserve have very little room left to cut, and central banks are also at different stages in their monetary cycles. The European Central Bank began tightening this year, criticizing Fed policy as too loose; China may still be in tightening mode. — Reuters
What the downgrade means THE United States lost its top-tier AAA credit rating from Standard & Poor’s Friday, a move that will affect the country’s borrowing costs and investor opinion of U.S. assets. Here is a Q+A on what the downgrade means for investors, consumers and to the country.
WHAT IS A DOWNGRADE?
Standard & Poor’s, one of the three major credit rating agencies that assign scores to debt issued by institutions, municipalities, and governments, said there is a heightened degree of risk in holding debt issued by the United States. So it lowered its rating from the AAA, the highest possible level, by one notch to AA+. It also said the outlook is negative.
DOES THIS MEAN THAT U.S. DEBT IS NO LONGER SAFE?
No. At AA+, the U.S. is still considered to have a "strong" ability to meet its obligations. In fact, only a handful of countries now have the AAA rating -- among them Canada, Germany, France and the United Kingdom. In addition, Treasuries have rallied this week, driving the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 2.34 percent, its lowest level in about 10 months. This suggests people still view the U.S. as a safe place to invest.
WHAT IMPACT DOES THE DOWNGRADE HAVE?
Over time, a lower rating will cause investors who buy U.S. government debt to demand a higher interest rate to hold that debt to reward them for the risk. If that is the case, benchmark long-term interest rates will rise. Most major rates, including the debt of corporations, mortgages purchased by investors, and other types of loans, are priced in relation to the U.S. Treasury benchmark. That means borrowing costs across a number of spectrums over time will rise, making loans and bonds more expensive. The more an individual or company is devoting to interest payments, the less they have for other activities.
SO WHAT WILL IT COST?
The downgrade could add up to 0.7 of a percentage point to U.S. Treasuries’ yields, increasing funding costs for public debt by some $100 billion, according to SIFMA, a U.S. securities industry trade group.
WHO OWNS U.S. DEBT?
Other than the U.S. Federal Reserve, the most recent data from the U.S. Treasury shows that China, with $1.16 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities, is the biggest holder of our debt. China has repeatedly warned of the unsustainable trend of U.S. deficits and has talked of diversifying its holdings to other economies. But because China maintains the value of its currency through buying of U.S. dollars, it is likely to continue to be a major holder of Treasury securities for some years ahead.
HOW LONG HAS THE U.S. HAD AN AAA RATING?
S&P has maintained a AAA rating on the U.S. since 1941. Moody’s has had an Aaa rating on the U.S. since 1917; Fitch’s top-tier AAA rating dates to 1994. - Reuters
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