FERNANDO POE JR.: UNQUALIFIED OR UNDERESTIMATED?

MANILA, January 17, 2004  (NEWSBREAK) By Isagani de Castro Jr. NEWSBREAK Contributing writer - In July 1998, less than a month in office, Joseph Estrada got his first taste of political controversy as the nation’s president. His support for the proposal of former First Lady Imelda Marcos that the late President Ferdinand Marcos be buried at the Heroes Cemetery in Fort Bonifacio drew a howl of protest from anti-Marcos forces. Estrada eventually changed his mind. The reason: an appeal from his best friend, Fernando Poe Jr.

"This I can reveal. It was FPJ who persuaded President Erap [not to support the proposal] because it was the wrong time," said Kris Aquino, daughter of former president Aquino, in a press conference for the movie Mano Po 2. "And that’s why my mommy and I had dinner with him, to thank him. I remember my mommy told him that the presidency is the loneliest place to be in. [And she told him], always be there for your friend because you don’t have any interest other than being his friend."

This anecdote gives an indication of Poe’s political instincts. It also seems to reinforce what his drumbeaters are saying about his sense of national unity. "Our goal is unity. Our goal is peace. Our goal is economic recovery and stability," Poe said in a speech read for him by Senator Vicente "Tito" Sotto III at the Philippine Business Conference on November 29.

The claim that he has not taken advantage of his close ties with Estrada is being trumpeted by Poe partisans as the best proof that he will not abuse the powers of the presidency the way his buddy did. Referring to Poe, Estrada has said on more than one occasion: "Even when I was mayor, senator, vice president and president, he never asked me any favor."

But with no political experience and being a high school dropout, Poe may be the most unqualified candidate for the presidency. The greatest fear of many is that Poe will be Erap remixed.

‘He dictates’

"It’ll be the same...or worse," said Dr. Nicanor Tiongson, a film professor and dean of the UP College of Mass Communication. "I’m not looking down on him but having gone to school is equated with having developed certain skills of analysis. It’s equated with having accumulated enough knowledge in your mind to be able to make correct judgments on relationships, on policies."

Sotto, Poe’s campaign manager, cites the success of the movie outfit FPJ Productions Inc. as a sign of the candidate’s managerial abilities. But Tiongson said running a movie production company is radically different from managing the complex problems of the nation. "A movie production company is dominated by the producers. In this particular case, he’s the producer, the actor, the director. Do you think he runs it democratically? He does not. He dictates," he said. A scriptwriter who has worked on some FPJ movies agreed with the observation, adding: "A president has to deal with many people. A president is always busy. He has to be patient in dealing with people, studying issues."

One major difference with Estrada is Poe’s cleaner image. Although he is known to be a heavy beer drinker, Poe does not have the baggage of having several mistresses.

What Poe lacks in intellectual abilities is made up for by his charisma, his movie persona, and the powerful social message of his real life: he dropped out of high school after the death of his father, worked to provide for his family, and made it big in business.

Those who have worked with him attest to his drawing power and popularity even in remote places of the country. In the November 2003 survey of the Social Weather Stations (SWS), Poe tied with Senator Noli de Castro in respondents’ preferences for president even before he declared his intention to run on November 26.

‘He’s no neophyte’

Political strategist Antonio Gatmaitan, campaign manager of the Cojuangco-Estrada ticket in 1992, said Poe’s political skills should not be underestimated. "Despite not being a politician, he is no neophyte," he said. Poe helped get Estrada elected as mayor in 1967, senator in 1987, vice president in 1992, and president in 1998. Poe helped organized supporters of Estrada during his term as mayor of San Juan when the Aquino administration replaced local officials in 1986. And he saw up close what went wrong with Estrada as president.

"I believe that FPJ has internalized all the political lessons he has learned from Erap, including the appeal to the 'masa,' the military’s loss of confidence [in Estrada], everything," Gatmaitan said.

A college classmate of Estrada said Poe may have been persuaded to run for the presidency as early as 2001 after Estrada was removed from office by the military-backed rebellion that would be known as Edsa 2. Poe reportedly visited Estrada at his Polk Street residence in Greenhills where Estrada told him, "Ikaw na pare (It’s your turn, my friend)."

Poe did not form a political organization after that, but the following year, Poe made two movies: Alamat ng Lawin (Legend of the Hawk) for the 2002 Metro Manila Film Festival, and Pakners, a movie with one of the country’s most popular athletes, billiards champion Efren "Bata" Reyes. Poe appeared in three parades to promote Alamat—in Pampanga, Davao City, and Cebu City. All three parades had the look of a political campaign.

In 2003, two "FPJ for President" movements were formed to gather at least two million signatures to help persuade him to run. Poe has been very careful to project that it is the citizens, not traditional politicians, who are clamoring for him to run. When he appeared before supporters at the Cuneta Astrodome on October 25 and at the Manila Hotel where he said he would join the presidential race, there was no "trapo" (meaning rag, and also short for traditional politician) with him. Only one prominent politician, comedian-turned-senator Sotto, was at the Manila Hotel.

Some say all this shows political astuteness as a pre-campaign strategy, including his decision not to attend his December 10 proclamation by the opposition. Is this the portent of things to come? A candidate who will campaign on his own terms and in his own style? Will "Da King" act like one on the campaign trail?

Story of his life

If Poe pushes his candidacy, his campaign will be a highly emotional one. Few expect him to join any of the political debates. Ambush, short interviews will be preferred; reporters will just have to settle for the sound bites.

Poe telling the story of his life will most likely be his political platform. Attacks on his intelligence and poor qualification will only generate more sympathy for him. Just like his movie roles, Poe will be a gentle and meek candidate. As he told ABS-CBN News Channel after declaring his candidacy, "Hindi kami titira (We won’t attack). Just because opposition ka, tira ka nang tira. We’ll not do that."

What may be Poe’s edge over other candidates is the absence of any electoral record on which they could base their counter-strategy. "You cannot tell where FPJ is strong or weak because he’s not a conventional politician and he has no track record. Like where did you win last time, how did you do last time? Everybody else has a track record except FPJ," Gatmaitan said.

With surveys showing his ability to win, at least three political parties have merged under the Koalisyon ng Nagkakaisang Pilipino (KNP), or Coalition of United Filipinos, to be Poe’s electoral vehicle.

The KNP was organized on Dec. 3, 2003 by Laban ng Demokratikong Pilipino (LDP) president Edgardo Angara, Partido ng Masang Pilipino (PMP) president Horacio Morales Jr., and the Partido ng Demokratikong Pilipino-Laban (PDP-Laban) of Makati City Mayor Jejomar Binay. A faction of the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC) is expected to join Poe in January.

Money, slogan

Big contributions are expected to come during the election campaign if Poe maintains or widens his lead over the rest of the pack. As of this writing, however, the Poe campaign kitty is still low on funds. But he may not need as much as the others since he has the strongest name recall.

Poe has two movements with similar acronyms—Filipinos for Peace, Justice and Progress Movement (FPJPM) and Freedom, Peace, Justice for the Philippines Movement (FPJPM) composed of citizen volunteers. Julius Raboca, a lawyer and secretary general of the latter, said Poe’s slogan would be "freedom from want and hunger" and "justice for all, both rich and poor." Peace and order will also be a priority since it is a prerequisite for political stability and investments.

Sotto said another advantage of Poe over other candidates is the expected support of 95 percent of the movie industry.

Poe, together with De Castro, are strongest among the masa voters (D) and the lowest income class (E), said SWS president Mahar Mangahas. The D and E classes account for 80 percent of Filipino voters. If De Castro doesn’t run for president, Mangahas said, Poe will get the bulk of De Castro’s votes.

Gatmaitan said that if Poe’s home province of Pangasinan could deliver a very big margin for Poe over the other candidates, the movie actor would have a good chance of winning. Poe is weakest in the Visayas, although his wife, Susan Roces, a native of Negros Occidental province, can help strengthen his drawing power in Western Visayas.

Lacson’s thinking

Campaign strategists of Senator Panfilo Lacson do not believe FPJ will be able to capture the 40-percent voter support that Estrada got in 1998. Angelito Banayo, a Lacson partisan who helped get Estrada elected in 1998, pointed out that Estrada had a good organization, funding, and backing by powerful local politicians early in the race. He also had the town of San Juan to show he could run a political unit efficiently. These factors helped translate his popularity to actual votes.

"FPJ won’t get Erap’s numbers," Banayo said. In December 1997, it was already clear Estrada was difficult to beat. In the case of Poe, he’s statistically tied with De Castro (25 percent and 24 percent, respectively) and only 7 percent ahead of President Arroyo in the November 2003 SWS survey. Pulse Asia even puts Raul Roco, Poe, and President Arroyo in a statistical tie, assuming a four-way race with Lacson as the fourth candidate.

Another Lacson supporter, San Juan Representative Ronaldo Zamora, said that issues and platforms do matter. "When you declare, people start to ask you questions and quite clearly, FPJ is not prepared to answer anything," he said. Banayo also belittled Poe’s claim to being a unifying force: "If he cannot unite the opposition, how can he unite the country?"

Indeed, how will Poe be as president?

As with Estrada, Poe will be very dependent on advisers for economic, foreign policy, and other matters. As of this writing, Angara and Sotto were still helping him assemble a team of economists and business advisers. Jose Pardo, former finance secretary under the Estrada administration, is one of them. Angara is using his contacts in the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry to recruit a credible team.

In case he wins, Poe can also turn to his first cousin, SWS’s Mangahas, to help form his Cabinet. Mangahas told reporters in a December 3 SWS briefing that Poe had not sought his advice but that he would be willing to help if asked. "We’re close. We are friends also," he said.

Dr. Bernardo Villegas, dean of the School of Economics of the University of Asia and the Pacific, has had discussions with some of Poe’s economic advisers. He said many of Poe’s economic advisers would come from the Estrada administration. "In the same way that Erap was able to get very good members of the Cabinet, I don’t see any problem of FPJ getting a set of Cabinet secretaries," he said.

Villegas said he does not see any major shift in government policies in the event of a Poe presidency after the Arroyo administration. "Knowing some of the people, I don’t think there will be any dramatic departure from what GMA [Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo] has right now," he said.

President Arroyo is not likely to find that much of a consolation.

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